Warrenton is experiencing a box-store boom.The town is quickly becoming the premier shopping destination in northwestern Oregon’s Clatsop County. It has Home Depot, Costco, Walgreens, Rite Aid — among other national retailers — but a population of only about 4,400.

“We’re in an explosive environment here,” said Carol Parker, city planning director.

Rumor has it, other prospective retailers are looking, such as Staples and Big 5.

Though the existing Costco is 70,000 square feet, the bargain-club retailer is building a 148,000-square-foot behemoth near the new Home Depot on U.S. Highway 101.

Coos County meanwhile, has a population nearly twice the size of Clatsop’s. And our retailers draw customers from the California border to Florence. So a lot of Coos County residents want to know: Where’s our Costco?

Close calls and shopping malls

Even when combined with Astoria, its big sister across the bridge, Warrenton is not a large city. Clatsop County’s demographics are similar to Coos County’s though Clatsop residents tend to be a bit wealthier, with a per capita income of $31,000, compared with $29,000 here.

Warrenton also has 17 miles of buildable, flat land within city limits — an unusual attribute on the hilly northern coast. That makes it fertile ground for developers. It has become the hot spot for retail development on the coast.

But big national chains haven’t totally ignored the Bay Area.

Andy Nasburg, commercial Realtor with North Point Real Estate in Coos Bay, said Walgreens and Michaels, an arts and crafts chain, showed interest five years ago, but things didn’t pan out.

Nasburg had locations available for the stores on Newmark Avenue, but both businesses wanted something on the 101. Earlier this year, he secured a prime location on the highway for Walgreens, but corporate brass backed out due to the economy.

Many retailers view Highway 101 as a lifeline to their business, said Nasburg, a commercial Realtor for 13 years.

Others want a population of at least 100,000 to draw from within a certain radius.

“That’s the challenge of being on the coast,” he said. “They don’t understand our shopping area. Our shopping district is elliptical.”

Paul Rudder, owner of Pony Village Mall, continually tries to lure big-name retailers to his shopping center, but they just aren’t biting.

“One thing people would like — and we would like, too — is a bookstore. But we just don’t have the population for a Barnes & Noble,” Rudder said.

The Bay Area came close to getting a Home Depot. The Coquille Economic Development Corp. even had a waterfront lease agreement with the home improvement chain, but the economy and complications with a storm water permit spiked the deal.

CEDCO, the business arm of the Coquille Indian Tribe, is optimistic a large retail entity eventually will take up residence on the Ko Kwel Wharf property, a 50.5-acre parcel located north of The Mill Casino-Hotel.

“When the economy turns around, they’ll be ready and we’ll be ready, too,” said CEDCO spokesman Ray Doering.

Mom-’n’-pops and job opps

Should a Home Depot or Lowe’s come our way, Jay Farr wouldn’t sweat it.

“When Walmart moved to the area, we didn’t have any change in business,” said the owner of Farr’s True Value Hardware, with locations in Coos Bay and Coquille.

He acknowledged that going up against a mega home-improvement retailer would “cut a piece of the pie,” but he’s confident he could compete.

“We offer more customer service and knowledge,” Farr said.

One store in downtown Astoria didn’t fare well against the new Home Depot. This week, The Daily Astorian reported that Hunt’s Home Furnishings will go out of business. Co-owner Tom Thornburg told the paper Home Depot and the ailing economy took a chunk out of his bottom line.

That’s a typical scenario, said Bruce Sorte, an economist with Oregon State University Extension’s Rural Studies Program.

“You never want to be a neighbor of a large retailer,” Sorte said.

What if an Olive Garden sprouted here?

Joe Benetti of Benetti’s Italian Restaurant in Coos Bay wouldn’t view it as a threat.

“They’re really a different operation,” he said.

A former mayor of Coos Bay, Benetti understands the desire to draw big retailers to the area, but he’s not sure it would be a boon to the economy.

“You want the jobs and the development, but as an individual, the last thing you want to do is affect the businesses we have here,” he said.

Farr, a third-generation hardware store owner, has reservations as well. Many of the jobs superstores provide are part-time with average pay, he said. His business provides 27 full-time jobs with benefits.

A common misconception is that big retail development will reduce unemployment, Sorte said. People relocate for jobs. That very thing is happening in Warrenton.

Warrenton’s Parker estimates that, within five years, more than 1,000 people will move to the area for jobs that come with big development. It spurs housing, too. About 690 homes will be located near Home Depot and Costco, she said. 

Big-box development also means more infrastructure, such as streets, and water and sewage facilities. More infrastructure means an increase in city employees, such as firemen and police, said Charles Wetzel, president of Buxton, a Texas-based company that helps businesses in customer identification and site selection.

Box store bust

While the economy hasn’t been kind to retailers in recent months, many national brands still are seeking opportunities for expansion, said Wetzel, whose company represents 1,200 clients in retail. 

“They’re looking to prove their worth,” he said.

Community officials who approach a corporate decision maker, such as a CEO or vice president of development, with key information (area demographics, location, economy, etc.) “will get a yes or no, very quickly,” Wetzel said.

But you have to be careful whom you recruit, said Sandra Messerle, director of the South Coast Development Council.

“There is a great deal to consider when going after retail of any kind,” Messerle said.

Box stores have a tendency to go belly-up when the economy sours. In recent months, Springfield lost Circuit City and regional sporting-goods chain Joe’s closed its Eugene location this year.

Messerle has a target list of retailers she’d like to approach, but only if they hold some promise of sustainability.

“We have to be as discretionary of them as they are with us,” she said.

Thinking outside the box

While creating retail opportunities in the Bay Area is one of Messerle’s goals, she’s not convinced big box stores are necessarily the way to go.

“If you look at the statistics, the most dependable jobs are those in businesses with eight to 15 people,” she said. “It’s the small businesses that really keep the economy running.”

National retailers can help plug “leakage,” or the amount of money leaving the community for urban shopping districts, said Sorte, the OSU economist.

The same can be said of Oregon-based chains, such as Bi-Mart. And that’s where Messerle sees promise.

“There are smaller businesses across the state that may be interested in expanding to our area,” she said.