Why is weather so hard to forecast?


Friday, June 26, 2009 | 4 comment(s)

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I want to know why I can’t rely on the weather forecast. Sure, trying to guess what will happen four days out can be a guessing game, but why is the next-24-hour-period forecast so often wrong (at least about rain)?

Well, it’s a Friday morning and it’s raining here in the Coquille Valley. I just rechecked and sure enough, yesterday’s World said we could expect it to be partly sunny. I’m not sure what the difference is between mostly cloudy and partly sunny, but the forecast seems to be one or the other pretty often lately. 

Since I’ve lived here less than two years, perhaps I’m just not familiar with Oregonian-speak. I have always assumed that if a forecast doesn’t even mention a possibility of rain, that it’s safe to leave the car windows open.

Or do I presume incorrectly that the Coquille Valley is part of the South Coast when it comes to weather forecasting? Should I be asking instead if it rained in Coos Bay and/or Bandon this morning?

Or is it perhaps a local microclimate weather phenomena caused by, perhaps the steam from the plywood factory? Or the hot air from the seat of county government?

I just want to know why we keep seeing the same weather forecast day after day, and fairly often we get different weather.

Ken Simpson

Coquille
Tags » coquille, letters
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arago wrote on Jul 3, 2009 12:13 PM:

Mr Simpson I hate to say this you live in Oregon now and well the only way you know what the weather is doing is look out your window. And be prepared for every type of weather there is.

You need a survival kit in your car which should include a raincoat, sweater or sweatshirt, extra pair of shoes, boots, tee-shirt in case you get hot.

You will get used to the weather it takes time.

Koos Bayanian wrote on Jul 3, 2009 9:57 AM:

LOL MiketheBear.

I always heard growing up "Welcome to the Oregon Coast. Wait or Drive for five minutes and the weather WILL change!"

In your case, Ken. You are SE of Coos Bay...that means a couple of valleys and ridges are between you and the coast. I have driven from foggy icky damp CB to Bright & Sunny Coquille many times. I am afraid that you will either learn to live with our ever changing weather or give up and move elsewhere. I wouldn't suggest Brookings either. Lived there for 4 years and they have a worse time focasting weather. Look up "The Chetco Effect" and read.

MikeTheBear wrote on Jun 27, 2009 11:42 AM:

Do what I do and put out an "Oregon Coast Weather Rock".

Make a tri-pod out of sticks. Tie a string around a rock and then connext that string to the tripod so your rock is freely swinging. Now set it outside in the open.

Now if your rock is brightly lit, its sunny. If it is wet, its raining. If it is swinging back and forth its windy.

Now when you observe the rock in any one of those elements add 2 hours to the time you observed it. That will be the weather forcast for the next 2 hours.

carefree highway wrote on Jun 26, 2009 4:35 PM:

They cant predict the weather here to save their lives. Weather changes here like a baby changing diapers. Never listen to the forecasts. Weather at the beach can be hot and clear one moment, then cold, cloudy and wet the next instant. Riding ATV's on the dunes was always with 3 different changes of clothes in preparation.


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