Published:Friday, June 26, 2009 11:13 AM PDT
Serving the South Coast of Oregon

Why is weather so hard to forecast?
Friday, June 26, 2009 11:13 AM PDT

I want to know why I can’t rely on the weather forecast. Sure, trying to guess what will happen four days out can be a guessing game, but why is the next-24-hour-period forecast so often wrong (at least about rain)?

Well, it’s a Friday morning and it’s raining here in the Coquille Valley. I just rechecked and sure enough, yesterday’s World said we could expect it to be partly sunny. I’m not sure what the difference is between mostly cloudy and partly sunny, but the forecast seems to be one or the other pretty often lately. 

Since I’ve lived here less than two years, perhaps I’m just not familiar with Oregonian-speak. I have always assumed that if a forecast doesn’t even mention a possibility of rain, that it’s safe to leave the car windows open.

Or do I presume incorrectly that the Coquille Valley is part of the South Coast when it comes to weather forecasting? Should I be asking instead if it rained in Coos Bay and/or Bandon this morning?

Or is it perhaps a local microclimate weather phenomena caused by, perhaps the steam from the plywood factory? Or the hot air from the seat of county government?

I just want to know why we keep seeing the same weather forecast day after day, and fairly often we get different weather.

Ken Simpson

Coquille


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