Some local real estate experts think the market has nowhere to go but up.

Just 645 residential and commercial properties sold in Coos County in 2008, down from 980 the previous year, according to a county assessor’s report on sales and foreclosures. In January, 20 properties sold. Forty-six changed hands in that month the previous year.

But local Realtors hope better times are ahead for their industry and property sellers.

“We should be very close to having reached the bottom,” said Sam Roth.

Roth, general manager and principal broker at Century 21 Best Realty in Coos Bay, can base his gut hunch on history. He’s been in real estate since 1975.

The average price for closed sales on residential homes went from $215,263 in 2007 to $191,900 in 2008, according to Market Action, a Regional Multiple Listing Service. The publication includes homes listed for sale by real estate offices, but not for-sale-by-owner homes.

Roth said the ideal would be for home prices to rise 5 percent to 6 percent each year.

“If you’re in a perfect world,” he said.

But in the real estate world, nothing’s perfect forever.

From 2002 through 2006, Roth saw huge increases in home prices. Then in about August 2006, prices began steadily dropping.

“You can’t sustain that,” he said.

Closed sales in Coos County dropped 22.2 percent for 12 months ending January 2009, according to Market Action. Average days on the market peaked in May 2008 at 250 days, and in November 2008 nearly reached that mark again.

Roth said the number of sales by Century 21 in 2008 was down 26 percent from the previous year. He said Century 21 hasn’t had to close offices in Coos County. Other area real estate offices haven’t been as fortunate.

“If they’re experiencing a lot of losses in one office, it will close and they’ll move the real estate agents to the main office,” Roth said.

The total number of real estate agents has dwindled too. According to the Coos County Board of Realtors, this January there were 212 registered agents compared with 256 in January 2008 and 266 the year prior.

Roth said he’s heard of agents outside his office who have quit because they couldn’t afford the $300 annual dues.

“There are Realtors out there that have taken a part-time job,” Roth said. “Just like other businesses, they need to hang on during this time.”

Mark Smith, a broker who started with Century 21 in 2000, lately has had to shift his focus from commercial sales to more residential sales.

“When that commercial goes down, you have to jump into another niche,” Smith said.

In the past, more than half of Century 21’s sales have been with return clients and referrals, but those have become few and far between.

“We’re beating down the bushes. Whatever it takes,” Smith said.

Businesses affiliated with real estate, such as title companies and appraisers, are hit hard as well.

Janet Rubin is vice president and district manager at Ticor Title Co., a subsidiary of Fidelity, which also owns Fidelity Title Co. She said Fidelity recently closed two smaller offices.

Since mid-2008, Rubin’s offices in Coos Bay and Bandon have seen 10 percent salary reductions across the board. Her 15-person workforce has been reduced to nine.

Rubin said the company’s only “bright light” has been refinancing of loans.

“We’re seeing a heavy refinance market right now,” Rubin said. “Corporate offices are saying that will be up and down throughout the year.”

Ticor’s corporate office doesn’t expect significant improvements soon.

“They don’t expect us to come back up until late 2010,” Rubin added.

In Coos County, foreclosures were up 51 percent in 2008 over 2007, with 77 defaulted mortgages versus 51 the previous year. Those numbers actually beat the state statistics, which showed foreclosures statewide up 73 percent for the 12 months starting in June 2007, according to RealtyTrac.

Roth said Coos County is faring better because of its conservative use of subprime loans. In other parts of the country, home values dropped as much as 50 percent, and homeowners have been letting their houses go into foreclosure, Smith said. Still, what’s affecting other states affects Coos County in ways people may not realize, he said.

“Some of the people buying houses may have wanted to take some of that profit and buy something up here,” Smith said. “We’re not seeing those out-of-state sales.”

Roth agreed.

“There was a time when in excess of 50 percent of all buyers were from out of state,” Roth said. “Today, it’s 5 percent.”

In Coos County, pending sales in January were up 33 percent compared with December 2008, according to Market Action. But closed sales fell 19 percent.

Jim Berg, principal broker and owner of North Point Inc. Real Estate and Development in Coos Bay, said he has seen an uptick in the past month or so — mainly commercial and foreclosure sales.

“We’re very close to where we were at this time around last year,” Berg said. “But it’s still not what we need to be seeing.”

Roth said he’ll have to see the outcome of President Obama’s $75 billion mortgage plan. But, no matter what the federal government does, Roth suggested the region won’t see a noticeable change in the market for at least six months.