Oregon Shores concerned about sea level
By Jolene Guzman, Staff Writer
Thursday, January 15, 2009 |
Two feet — or there about. That’s how much sea levels could rise in the next 100 years, researchers say.
That estimate, generated by the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, does not take into account changes in ice flows and melting of polar and Greenland ice sheets. Sea level rise isn’t just a concern in future decades. Coastal regions already are seeing impacts, which are only predicted to increase.
One environmental group is pressing Oregon to help coastal communities get ready for the water.
“The handwriting is on the wall that we are going to see sea levels rising,” said Steven Schell, an Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition director and land use attorney. “The only question is how much.”
Another question is: When? Schell said dramatic change won’t happen overnight, but there already is evidence of shifts.
“Can I say that the Coos Bay area will be wiped out tomorrow? No,” he said. “Can I say the areas like Charleston and the North Spit will have to deal with sea level rise? Yes.”
It’s not the general sea level rising that is alarming in and of itself, said Bob Bailey, the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development’s coastal division director. When you combine it with other factors — bigger storm surges, higher high tides, changing ocean conditions and weather patterns — it paints a chaotic future for low-lying areas here on the coast.
In the Coos Bay area, the impacts of rising seas, bigger storm surges and shoreline erosion already are making themselves known. Experts believe that over time, it’ll get worse. Changing seasonal climates — possibly longer, drier summers and wetter winters — also could alter forest ecosystems.
Rising temperatures and ocean acidification caused by the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could affect marine plants and animals. Oysters, clams, snails, sea urchins, sea stars, crab and microscopic phytoplankton are among those sea plants and animals whose populations could decline in Oregon’s estuaries and coastal waters, according to Oregon Shores.
And so, the group is pressing the state for an answer on how it will deal with the impending changes.
The coalition is asking the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission to adopt a statewide goal to protect coastal areas, called “Goal 20.” Coalition members will present a petition and the reasoning for it today at LCDC’s meeting in Salem.
Schell said abiding by the guidelines of Goal 20 would bring others into the discussion, such as coastal home and business owners, commercial fishermen, real estate interests and insurance companies and other coastal industries.
“Our take is let’s set up a process to talk about this because the time is now,” Schell said.
Bailey said his department agrees the topic needs to be dealt with, but not in the manner Oregon Shores is proposing.
“The staff is recommending the petition be denied,” he said.
Statewide goals already exist, Bailey said. Oregon Shores’ proposal would place too many restrictions on the process.
“We need more flexibility,” he said.
According to a report prepared by department staff, adapting land use planning rules to account for climate change is one way state and local governments can start dealing with predicted change now. The department recommends governments use maps of areas that will be affected by higher seas and surges to avoid development in those areas.
Oregon Shores’ proposed Goal 20 process stipulates at least 10 public meetings across the state, requires state and local governments to asses their risk and gives them four years to adopt a plan to mitigate the risk. The process will take time, and it would cost money. Schell says it is worth it.
“This is too big of an issue for Oregon to take care of without a broader dialogue,” he said.
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