Published:Friday, November 7, 2008 10:02 AM PST
Serving the South Coast of Oregon

Brownlow: Spoiler or sideshow in Senate race?
Friday, November 7, 2008 10:02 AM PST

PORTLAND — A lot of people may have agreed with Dave Brownlow, the third man in Oregon’s U.S. Senate race, on at least something. But apparently few agreed with him on everything.

He described himself as pro-life, anti-war, rock-solid hands-off conservative. Do what you want, he advocated, but don’t hurt anyone along the way.

The Constitution Party candidate, who hardly campaigned, won a little more than 5 percent of the vote.

But whose?

Two pollsters agreed that most came at the expense of Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, a two-term incumbent defeated by Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. But did Brownlow make the difference?

Generally, Brownlow did best in rural, more isolated Oregon counties, big-sky country where people like to be left alone and where Smith also did well. If all his votes had gone to Smith, far from a certainty, Smith might be headed back for a third term.

But that scenario, said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, is a long walk. “You cannot assume every Brownlow voter would have been a Smith voter,” he said Thursday.

Merkley had a 47,000-vote lead as of Thursday afternoon with about 16 percent of the expected vote yet to be counted. Brownlow had 86,000 votes.

Hibbitts said Brownlow may have played the role of a protest vote for people fed up with both major parties and who might not have voted otherwise. “Brownlow voters might have played the “none of the above” role. Your name or mine could have been there.”

But Mike Riley of Riley Research Associates said Brownlow’s showing may have had more clout than that, and it also carried a message because Constitution Party voters are typically conservative voters.

He said an argument could be made that 80 percent of Brownlow’s votes would have gone to Smith if the Constitution Party candidate had not been on the ballot.

He said Brownlow’s voters were likely turned off by Smith’s support for some gay issues, his stand against Arctic drilling and his switch from a supporter to an opponent of the Iraq war.

“Brownlow was a refuge for a lot of those people.”

Riley noted that the Constitution Party presidential candidate didn’t make a dent in Oregon, and only about 1 percent of the party members will be loyal no matter the race.

“When the party gets four or five times that, that’s a statement,” he said.

Hibbitts said if the margin between Smith and Merkley had been closer to 15,000, which it appeared it might be for a time, Brownlow may have made a difference. He said it comes down to basic math. Smith would have needed about 70,000 of Brownlow’s 86,000 votes to win.

“Did he hurt Smith? Yes. Did he make the difference? I think not,” he said.

Brownlow’s limited campaign contended there no longer is a real difference between the two major parties and that the United States has become a “lawless one-party system.”

“Nobody needs another politician in a fancy suit pretending to know what’s best for us,” his Web site said.

“Me? I don’t even own a suit.”


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