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Retiring workers free up jobs locally
By Jo Rafferty, Staff Writer
Saturday, November 03, 2007 | No comments posted.
The unemployment rate in Coos County has declined slightly since this time last year. It dropped from 6.2 percent to 6 percent.
It may not seem like much, but the stability of the job market can be attributed to a growing number of older workers in the work force who are retiring and leaving positions open. That's, according to Guy Tauer, regional economist for Coos and Curry counties, with the Worksource Oregon Employment Department, based in Medford.
“There’s demand to fill those positions as replacement needs are there,” Tauer said.
Tauer told the South Coast Development Council board that the age of workers in Coos County has shifted from 17 percent of those ages 45 to 54 making up the work force in 1991, to 25.7 percent of the same age group at work in 2006. The increase is similar for those ages 55 to 64, who made up 9.6 percent of the work force in 1991 and 16.8 percent in 2006.
“In 15 years, you can see that seismic shift in the age of people at work,” Tauer said, adding that the age increase is due to a couple of factors.
“It’s a culmination of more older people moving to the area, plus the Baby Boomers,” he said. “The Baby Boomers are aging.”
Tauer said that population forecasts for the future predict that by 2020, in Coos County, 25.3 percent of residents will be older than 65. This is a higher percentage than in Oregon, which is estimated to have 16.8 percent people older than 65 by 2020.
But Curry County is expected to have an even higher percentage, with 34.4 percent of seniors beyond age 65 predicted over the next 13 years.
“Prepare for more folks with gray hair. Especially in Curry County,” Tauer said.
SCDC member Dan Smith, who is president and CEO of Bay Area Hospital, said he has concerns about what’s going to happen when his employees retire.
“We have about 325 registered nurses and their average age is 48-plus years,” Smith said.
The population of people of all ages in Coos County has steadily been rising over the years, but not by much. Since 1990, the number of people in Coos County rose by about 2,700 people — from 60,273 to 62,905.
Tauer said since about 1993 population increases have been due to people migrating to the Bay Area and not from natural growth of the population.
The top 18 counties exporting residents to Coos County from 2004-05 include nine Oregon counties, one Washington county, one Nevada county and five California counties. Of these, the number of Douglas County immigrants was the highest, at almost 300 that year.
But, relocating has become not so easy to do for people as the housing market declines.
“Since home sales fell by 31 percent in Northern California, the lending standards are tighter,” Tauer said. “The cost of homes go up.”
“Coos County didn’t see as rapid a run up in housing prices,” he added.
Tauer said that since Coos County wasn’t as affected by the housing crunch as other areas, the county also didn’t see as much of a decline in construction-related work.
But, he said, with only a .7 percent increase in all jobs added in the county in 2006, the job market is tight.
Information from 2006-07 payroll tax records shows that the largest decrease in jobs came from the wood manufacturing sector, with 71 jobs lost. But, food manufacturing has made a comeback from previous years, adding 43 jobs, mainly due to a rise in the fishing industry, Tauer said.
The business sectors that looked most promising last year were accommodations and food services, with an increase of 194 jobs, and health care and social assistance, with 130 jobs added.
The service industry should continue to see a rise, as well as office and administrative support, sales and professional positions, transportation-related and health care jobs, according to Tauer, who said the occupations with the fastest projected growth are medical assistants and customer service representatives.
He said Coos County holds some challenges, economically.
“There are still challenges in the area in terms of lowering that poverty average,” Tauer said. “Coos County has really lost ground since about 1990. There are more part-time jobs and less manufacturing, forestry, fishing and wood products jobs.
“Losing that 40-hour-a-week employment really shows.”
It may not seem like much, but the stability of the job market can be attributed to a growing number of older workers in the work force who are retiring and leaving positions open. That's, according to Guy Tauer, regional economist for Coos and Curry counties, with the Worksource Oregon Employment Department, based in Medford.
“There’s demand to fill those positions as replacement needs are there,” Tauer said.
Tauer told the South Coast Development Council board that the age of workers in Coos County has shifted from 17 percent of those ages 45 to 54 making up the work force in 1991, to 25.7 percent of the same age group at work in 2006. The increase is similar for those ages 55 to 64, who made up 9.6 percent of the work force in 1991 and 16.8 percent in 2006.
“In 15 years, you can see that seismic shift in the age of people at work,” Tauer said, adding that the age increase is due to a couple of factors.
“It’s a culmination of more older people moving to the area, plus the Baby Boomers,” he said. “The Baby Boomers are aging.”
Tauer said that population forecasts for the future predict that by 2020, in Coos County, 25.3 percent of residents will be older than 65. This is a higher percentage than in Oregon, which is estimated to have 16.8 percent people older than 65 by 2020.
But Curry County is expected to have an even higher percentage, with 34.4 percent of seniors beyond age 65 predicted over the next 13 years.
“Prepare for more folks with gray hair. Especially in Curry County,” Tauer said.
SCDC member Dan Smith, who is president and CEO of Bay Area Hospital, said he has concerns about what’s going to happen when his employees retire.
“We have about 325 registered nurses and their average age is 48-plus years,” Smith said.
The population of people of all ages in Coos County has steadily been rising over the years, but not by much. Since 1990, the number of people in Coos County rose by about 2,700 people — from 60,273 to 62,905.
Tauer said since about 1993 population increases have been due to people migrating to the Bay Area and not from natural growth of the population.
The top 18 counties exporting residents to Coos County from 2004-05 include nine Oregon counties, one Washington county, one Nevada county and five California counties. Of these, the number of Douglas County immigrants was the highest, at almost 300 that year.
But, relocating has become not so easy to do for people as the housing market declines.
“Since home sales fell by 31 percent in Northern California, the lending standards are tighter,” Tauer said. “The cost of homes go up.”
“Coos County didn’t see as rapid a run up in housing prices,” he added.
Tauer said that since Coos County wasn’t as affected by the housing crunch as other areas, the county also didn’t see as much of a decline in construction-related work.
But, he said, with only a .7 percent increase in all jobs added in the county in 2006, the job market is tight.
Information from 2006-07 payroll tax records shows that the largest decrease in jobs came from the wood manufacturing sector, with 71 jobs lost. But, food manufacturing has made a comeback from previous years, adding 43 jobs, mainly due to a rise in the fishing industry, Tauer said.
The business sectors that looked most promising last year were accommodations and food services, with an increase of 194 jobs, and health care and social assistance, with 130 jobs added.
The service industry should continue to see a rise, as well as office and administrative support, sales and professional positions, transportation-related and health care jobs, according to Tauer, who said the occupations with the fastest projected growth are medical assistants and customer service representatives.
He said Coos County holds some challenges, economically.
“There are still challenges in the area in terms of lowering that poverty average,” Tauer said. “Coos County has really lost ground since about 1990. There are more part-time jobs and less manufacturing, forestry, fishing and wood products jobs.
“Losing that 40-hour-a-week employment really shows.”
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