SALEM (AP) - In his annual fall and winter forecast, state climatologist George Taylor predicts warmer than average temperatures and average to somewhat above average precipitation.

“Compared to last year, it's going to be less extreme and even dull,” Taylor said.

But there could be a twist.

To arrive at his forecasts, Taylor takes climate data for the current year and compares it with past years, looking for one in which conditions were most similar to what they are now.

For this forecast, Taylor focused on the similarities between now and 1951. Among the weather events of that year: a Dec. 6 tornado that struck near the Eugene airport. Oregon doesn't get many tornadoes, but Taylor wouldn't rule it out.

“There could be a tornado any year, because an extreme weather event is par for the course here in the winter,” Taylor said.

Taylor predicts a weak El Nino. That in turn will mean a flow of warm air coming to Oregon from the southwest instead of arctic blasts from the north. The jet stream is likely to sit just north of Oregon and it forms the boundary between warm and cold air, Taylor said.

“Washington and British Columbia will be where the action is,” he said.

In similar years, Southern Oregon saw deeper than average mountain snows, so Taylor expects decent ski conditions there.

Taylor offers the predictions because farmers like having a general idea about coming trends. The Old Farmer's Almanac also offers its own guesses. This year, the almanac agrees with Taylor about precipitation, but predicts colder weather.

Taylor has had mixed results in recent years. He accurately predicted last winter's stormy weather, but failed to foresee the dry winter of 2004-2005.