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Saxton and Kulongoski leading in state polls
By Brad Cain, Associated Press Writer
Friday, May 05, 2006 | No comments posted.
SALEM - A new statewide poll shows Republican voters slightly favor Ron Saxton over Kevin Mannix in the GOP gubernatorial race leading up to the May 16 primary, while Gov. Ted Kulongoski is leading his Democratic rivals but with lukewarm support.
The poll by The Oregonian and KATU-TV shows Saxton at 31 percent favoring or leaning toward him, 2002 primary winner Mannix at 24 percent in favor or leaning, and Sen. Jason Atkinson at 18 percent in favor or leaning.
The margin of error on the survey, which was conducted April 30-May 2, among a sampling of 600 Oregonians is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Saxton campaign spokesman Felix Schein said the results make it clear that Republican voters think Saxton has the best chance to win back the governor's office for the GOP after five successive losses to the Democrats.
“More than anything, what the poll shows is that Republicans want to win in November,” he said.
But Mannix campaign spokesman Jack Kane said the new poll mirrors results taken at about the same stage in the 2002 GOP primary, which Mannix eventually won with Saxton coming in third place.
“Saxton tends to peak early, then he fades,” Kane said.
The poll shows 43 percent of Democratic voters support or lean toward Kulongoski in the primary election. Former Treasurer Jim Hill is at 30 percent in favor or leaning, while Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson trails at 8 percent in favor or leaning.
The results show surprisingly tepid support among Democrats for Kulongoski, given his wide name recognition and the improving condition of Oregon's economy - usually a plus for an incumbent.
Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, who conducted the survey, said he thinks Kulongoski will win the May 16 primary. But he said Kulongoski will head into the fall general election in a weakened position if can't draw 60 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary.
“It would mean that 40 percent of your own party is rejecting you,” Hibbitts said. “His vulnerability shoots up in the general election.”
Kulongoski campaign spokesman Cameron Johnson said the new poll numbers reflect the “multiple attacks” that have been aimed at the governor by challengers from both parties. Kulongoski still believes he will win in November, Johnson said.
“Our internal polling shows that we have double-digit leads over either Ron Saxton or Kevin Mannix” in November matchups, he said.
The poll concluded that 66 percent of the Republicans and 48 percent of the Democrats feel Oregon is on the wrong track and that 28 percent of the Republicans and 48 percent of the Democrats identify school funding or schools generally as their priority.
Among Democrats 77 percent listed their opinion of President Bush as “very unfavorable” as opposed to only 16 percent of the Republicans polled.
The poll by The Oregonian and KATU-TV shows Saxton at 31 percent favoring or leaning toward him, 2002 primary winner Mannix at 24 percent in favor or leaning, and Sen. Jason Atkinson at 18 percent in favor or leaning.
The margin of error on the survey, which was conducted April 30-May 2, among a sampling of 600 Oregonians is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Saxton campaign spokesman Felix Schein said the results make it clear that Republican voters think Saxton has the best chance to win back the governor's office for the GOP after five successive losses to the Democrats.
“More than anything, what the poll shows is that Republicans want to win in November,” he said.
But Mannix campaign spokesman Jack Kane said the new poll mirrors results taken at about the same stage in the 2002 GOP primary, which Mannix eventually won with Saxton coming in third place.
“Saxton tends to peak early, then he fades,” Kane said.
The poll shows 43 percent of Democratic voters support or lean toward Kulongoski in the primary election. Former Treasurer Jim Hill is at 30 percent in favor or leaning, while Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson trails at 8 percent in favor or leaning.
The results show surprisingly tepid support among Democrats for Kulongoski, given his wide name recognition and the improving condition of Oregon's economy - usually a plus for an incumbent.
Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, who conducted the survey, said he thinks Kulongoski will win the May 16 primary. But he said Kulongoski will head into the fall general election in a weakened position if can't draw 60 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary.
“It would mean that 40 percent of your own party is rejecting you,” Hibbitts said. “His vulnerability shoots up in the general election.”
Kulongoski campaign spokesman Cameron Johnson said the new poll numbers reflect the “multiple attacks” that have been aimed at the governor by challengers from both parties. Kulongoski still believes he will win in November, Johnson said.
“Our internal polling shows that we have double-digit leads over either Ron Saxton or Kevin Mannix” in November matchups, he said.
The poll concluded that 66 percent of the Republicans and 48 percent of the Democrats feel Oregon is on the wrong track and that 28 percent of the Republicans and 48 percent of the Democrats identify school funding or schools generally as their priority.
Among Democrats 77 percent listed their opinion of President Bush as “very unfavorable” as opposed to only 16 percent of the Republicans polled.
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