Higher growth: hope for jobless?

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Saturday, February 26, 2005 | 3 comment(s)

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WASHINGTON - The economy clocked in at a 3.8 percent pace in the final quarter of 2004 - faster than initially thought - and is now cruising at that speed or better. That could be good news for jobless people hoping for companies to increase hiring.

In the newest reading on the economy's fitness, the gross domestic product exceeded a previous estimate of a 3.1 percent annual growth rate for the October-to-December quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States.

The improvement reflected more robust spending by businesses on capital equipment and on inventories of goods. The trade deficit also was less of a drag on fourth-quarter growth than initially thought.

Although economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a bit slower than the third quarter's 4 percent, the performance was still solid.

"We are now at a comfortable cruising altitude," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America Capital Management. "What is significant is that all parts of the economy were pulling their own weight."

In other news, sales of previously owned homes slipped 0.1 percent in January from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.80 million units, the National Association of Realtors reported. Even with the dip, sales remained healthy, analysts said.

On Wall Street, the GDP report lifted stocks. The Dow Jones industrials rose 92.81 points to 10,841.60, the best close since Dec. 28.

For the current January-to-March quarter, the economy is expected to grow at a rate of around 4 percent, some economists project.

Analysts are hoping that with the economy moving ahead at a good pace, companies will feel more inclined to step up hiring in upcoming months. Economists predict the nation's payrolls will expand by a sizable 225,000 in February, which would be up from January's 146,000 gain. The government releases the February employment report next week.

"With decent momentum entering the New Year, we should soon be generating the kind of job growth that will make the expansion feel like good times," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services. The jobs market was slower to recover from the 2001 recession than other parts of the economy, a source of frustration to jobseekers.

President Bush wants the economy and the labor market on firm footing, especially as he tries to sell the country on an overhaul of Social Security. A cornerstone of his plan would let workers set up private investment accounts in stocks and bonds, using a majority of their payroll taxes to do so. Democrats generally oppose the idea and some Republicans in Congress are wary as well.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan last week struck a positive note on the economy's performance, telling Congress: "All told, the economy seems to have entered 2005 expanding at a reasonably good pace, with inflation and inflation expectations well anchored."

Fed policy-makers are expected to boost short-term interest rates March 22, which would mark the seventh increase since June, to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.

In the GDP report, businesses clearly did their part to carry the economy in the final quarter of last year. That's especially encouraging because it was deep cuts in companies' capital spending that helped push the country into recession and restrained the subsequent recovery.

Businesses boosted spending on equipment and software at a 18 percent rate in the fourth quarter. That was up from a previous estimate and surpassed the 17.5 percent pace in the third quarter.

Such brisk investment was stoked partly by companies taking advantage of a temporary provision, which expired at the end of 2004, allowing them generous write-offs on capital equipment, analysts said. Some economists questioned the vigor of future capital spending with that stimulus gone.

Business investment in new plants and other buildings, as well as in building up supplies of goods also were stronger in the fourth quarter than previously thought.

Consumer spending grew at a solid 4.2 percent pace in the final quarter. That was down a bit from the government's initial estimate as well as the 5.1 percent growth rate registered in the third quarter. During the recovery, the economy was largely carried by consumers.

"We had a nice handoff from the final quarter of last year, and a good starting point for this year," said Tim O'Neill, economist at Bank of Montreal.
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OCAPA wrote on Aug 6, 2007 9:37 AM:

Although it is terrible that the tragedy in MN had to happen, it's refreshing to hear that Gov. Kulongoski is going forward with suggestions from the Oregon Concrete and Aggregate industries. The concrete and cement people have been yelling about the importance of these inspections and maintenance of bridges for years.

Pancho wrote on Jul 15, 2007 12:58 PM:

My kids are illegal, can we still get free lunch?

Just An Observer wrote on Nov 29, 2006 5:05 PM:

We need all the hydro power we can get. It's non-polluting and doesn't result in any global warming increase. If needed, rebuild the dams to be as fish friendly as possible but don't cut the flow of juice. Our nation's increasing demand for electricity means we need to keep in place all the hydro we can, otherwise we'll have to build even more polluting power stations or deal with even more nuclear waste that no state wants as we head toward building more nuclear plants. Sometimes choosing what is needed isn't easy but aquaculture can breed a lot more fish to make up for Klamath salmon runs being down much easier than we can build more power plants.


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