PORTLAND - Oregon's unemployment rate hardly budged in November, a sign the state's economic recovery may be leveling off at the end of the year - just when retailers depend on strong holiday sales.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Oregon was 7.1 percent in November, a slight improvement from 7.2 percent in October and 7.3 percent in September.
But state labor economists consider the rate to be relatively unchanged over the past three months, and within a narrow range for the past 10 months, going from a low of 6.7 percent in April to a high of 7.4 percent in August.
"I think we're probably in a holding pattern right now," said Amy Vander Vliet, regional labor economist for the Oregon Employment Department.
The flat Oregon jobless rate reflects the national unemployment rate, which remained essentially unchanged in November at 5.4 percent compared with 5.5 percent in October.
Still, the state has gained 36,300 jobs over the past 12 months.
"I think Oregon is generally on track, and we're climbing back to the prerecession level," said John Mitchell, regional economist for U.S. Bank in Portland.
Most Oregon industries showed typical trends for November, with some modest gains for a few sectors of the state economy.
"The good news is that we performed along with seasonal expectations," Vander Vliet said, "so there were no shocks, no noticeable declines. Things were steady."
Leisure and hospitality gained 1,300 jobs in November, continuing an upward trend over the past year for the restaurant and hotel trade, with employment up 3,800 jobs or 2.5 percent.
Financial services added 1,100 jobs in November, offsetting a similar decline in October to put employment at roughly the same level as November 2003.
But professional and business services dropped 1,200 jobs while trade, transportation, and utilities performed below expectations, with a loss of 1,300 jobs.
Overall, statewide employment trends have been flat since June after strong gains for many Oregon industries during the first half of the year.
Retail industries generally associated with holiday job gains saw stronger September-to-November hiring than last year, but slightly weaker than historical standards.
Retailers typically added 7,500 jobs between September and November over the past four years, but added only 6,200 jobs this year during the same two-month period that opens the holiday season.
The total jobless number for Oregon in November was 124,791, compared with 117,662 in October. The number of unemployed Oregonians decreased compared to last November, when 134,720 were unemployed with a jobless rate at 7.7 percent.
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On the Net:
Oregon Employment Department figures:
http://www.QualityInfo.org
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