Study shows money impacts legislative victories

Friday, November 12, 2004 |
SALEM (AP) - In what should come as no surprise, the candidates who raised the most money fared best in last week's election.
An analysis of the races for the Oregon Legislature shows that the winning candidate was the top fund-raiser in 91 percent of the 77 contests. East of the Cascades, the candidate with the fund-raising edge won every race.
The Portland-based Money in Politics Research Action Project compiled the data, using contributions reported through the fall, plus any cash balances remaining from the May primary. The analysis doesn't reflect donations that will be listed in a final post-election report due Dec. 2.
"Fund-raising prowess once again proves to be a powerful predictor of Oregon legislative winners," wrote authors Janice Thompson and Sarah Wetherson.
The average collections for winning candidates approached $59,000 for a House race and more than $100,000 for a Senate race, according to the report. The top fund-raisers for 2004 House and Senate seats raised nearly six times more.
Sen. Ben Westlund, R-Tumalo, said there's nothing sinister about better-financed candidates winning. In most cases, he said, the more qualified person attracts more donations.
He raised $65,601. His opponent, Constitution Party candidate Don Loyd of Bend, didn't report any contributions.
Contributors are often like bettors at a racetrack who want to put money on a winner, so will carefully research the political leanings of a district before plunking any money down, Westlund said.
In Portland, for example, voter registration is overwhelmingly Democratic and Democratic candidates get most of the donations. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Oregon districts lean conservative, and more money flows to Republicans.
Of the seven races in which the less-adept fund-raiser prevailed, three of the winners were incumbents and benefited from name familiarity with voters: Reps. Phil Barnhart, D-Eugene; Mike Schaufler, D-Happy Valley; and Alan Bates, D-Ashland. Bates earned election to a state Senate seat.
But Marie Gibson, president of the League of Women Voters in Deschutes County, said it's somewhat depressing to see fund-raising as such a predictor of success.
"You wonder what kind of support it is and what the source is," she said. "You don't want to feel that one huge major contributor is maybe even subliminally affecting how a legislator votes later."
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