SALEM - One poll conducted by an East Coast research firm gives Democrat John Kerry a 7-point lead over President Bush in Oregon. Another gives Bush a 4-point lead.

Political observers within the state, however, see a tightly knotted race in which either side could end up winning Oregon's seven electoral votes.

"The race is somewhere between even and Kerry with a slight lead right now," said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts.

That assessment conflicts with a poll conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington that showed Bush leading Kerry, 47-44 percent, among Oregon voters with 9 percent undecided.

Yet another survey taken last week, this one by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., had Kerry leading Bush, 51-44, in Oregon with 5 percent undecided.

"I don't believe that George Bush is ahead, nor do I believe Kerry has a 7-point lead," Hibbitts said.

Joel Bloom, a research associate at the Oregon Survey Research Laboratory at the University of Oregon, said even the best opinion research firms make mistakes at times.

"When you have differing poll results from reputable organizations, your best bet is to average them," Bloom said. "That gives you a 1.5 percentage point lead for Kerry."

Kerry had enjoyed a lead of 8 percentage points or more in Oregon up until recent months, but then Bush got a "bounce" in the polls in Oregon and around the nation after the Republican convention in New York.

Hibbitts said criticism of Kerry's military record by a group of Swift Boat veterans and an "inconsistent and unclear message" by the Democratic contender also took a toll.

"There is no question that there has been erosion in Kerry's position in the last month," Hibbitts said.

At the same time, Hibbitts said Kerry is starting to come back up as he's adopted a tougher line of criticism this week against Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and the economy.

Political analyst Jim Moore said both campaigns have made it clear that they still consider Oregon in play.