Report: Job growth over next decade to be modest

Wednesday, July 09, 2003 |
PORTLAND (AP) - A new report says Oregon's work force will grow by 14 percent over the next 10 years or about 215,000 jobs, a modest increase compared to the 300,000 jobs the state added over the past decade.
Nearly half of that growth will come from service sector jobs, according to a biannual Oregon Employment Department report.
Most new jobs are expected to pop up in areas with rapid population growth, such as central and southern Oregon and the Portland suburbs, the report said.
The forecast assumes a recovery from the current economic slump within the next year and a half, said Eric Moore, a state senior economic analyst. Oregon's unemployment rate reached 8.2 percent in May, the highest reading since the recession's 8.4 percent peak in January 2002.
"The unprecedented growth period of the '90s is unlikely to be repeated any time soon, so we're coming back to something that long term is probably more stable growth," Moore said. "Almost undoubtedly we're going to add jobs. The question is where."
Service jobs in health, private education and social service fields will lead the pack, with population growth driving the job creation, the report concluded.
"Any more jobs would be good news," said Kelli Walker, a manager with Workforce Connections, a Mt. Hood Community College program that helps adults find work.
About 14,000 people came into the office looking for work in the past year, Walker said. Nearly 40 percent of them were laid off from manufacturing jobs.
Sectors in manufacturing such as apparel, food, metals and forest products productions are expected to see declines in employment during the next decade, the state report said.
But the wood-products industry appears to be bottoming out, Moore said.
The high-tech sector is forecast to gain jobs without regaining pre-recession levels, despite some predictions from economists that such jobs will continue to migrate overseas, he said.
"You never know what the future holds," Moore said. "It could go the other direction. Our best guess is that it will rebound, but it won't be the growth engine it was in the '90s."
Cities such as Bend and Medford will be the beneficiaries of many of the new jobs in the next decade, the report said. The areas are becoming havens for retirees, driving demand for jobs in the health care field, for example, Moore said. Meanwhile, rural Oregon "will just continue muddling along," he said.
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