SALEM (AP) - Hoping to build on election victories last fall, Oregon AFL-CIO president Tim Nesbitt is quietly laying the groundwork for a 2004 ballot measure to create a new Oregon tax system to pay for schools and other services.

And Nesbitt is letting it be known he and others are prepared to move ahead with a tax reform campaign with or without the backing of Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who insists Oregonians aren't ready for such a vote.

For weeks, Nesbitt has been meeting with education, business and other groups to talk about a replacement for what they say is an out-of-kilter tax system that leaves funding for schools and other programs vulnerable to economic downturns. More than most other states, Oregon relies on income taxes that fall off sharply during a recession.

No agreements have been reached on the basic elements of a tax overhaul package, but Nesbitt said he believes the various groups will come together on a plan in time to put the issue before voters in November 2004.

"It would not only be a missed opportunity, but a shirked responsibility, if we don't do that," the labor federation chief said in an interview.

The AFL-CIO showed in last November's election that it has the political horsepower to influence the outcome of elections.

It relied on hundreds of volunteers going door-to-door and used computerized phone banks to reach 180,000 union households to win passage of measures to raise Oregon's minimum wage and impose tougher signature-gathering rules on initiatives. The labor federation also was instrumental in Kulongoski's victory over Republican Kevin Mannix in what turned out to be a surprisingly close race.

Nesbitt and Kulongoski remain close political allies, although they disagree over when would be the best time to ask voters to overhaul a state tax system that is heavily reliant on income and property taxes.

The Democratic governor has said that he and the Legislature first must restore public confidence in government by taking such steps as reining in the costs of the Oregon Public Employees Retirement System.

Kulongoski has said that even with those steps, people might not be ready to engage in a tax reform discussion until 2005 or beyond.

Peter Bragdon, the governor's chief of staff, said it's possible Kulongoski could get behind a 2004 tax measure if someone could make a "compelling case" to him that Oregonians are ready for such a debate.

But Bragdon said his boss worries that rushing to next year's ballot with a tax reform plan will produce the same result as many other tax plans in recent Oregon history - utter rejection by the voters.

"There might not be enough time between now and 2004 to engage people in a discussion about what they want from government and how they want to pay for it," Bragdon said.

"It's not just a matter of raising $3 million in campaign money and running a six-week television campaign. It's a larger process than that," he said.

Lynn Lundquist, a former Oregon House speaker who now is president of the Oregon Business Association, a lobbying group, worries that Kulongoski is waiting for the "perfect moment" to approach voters on the issue.

"I don't think the polling is ever going to show that, 'Now is the right time to do it.' I don't know if we can ever get there,' Lundquist said. "I think it's going to take leadership to promote whatever the plan is."

Mike Rosen, a Portland School District parent who's been active in efforts to protect schools from budget cuts, said he likely will be part of the AFL-CIO's campaign to create a more stable tax system that adequately funds schools.

Rosen points to the recent election in Multnomah County in which people there voted to establish the state's first county income tax as a way to avoid teacher layoffs and larger class sizes.

"I think people are chomping at the bit for tax reform," said Rosen, who has two children in elementary school. "It's frustrating that the governor is not responding to this groundswell."