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European population momentum slowing
By Paul Recer, AP Science Writer
Thursday, March 27, 2003 | No comments posted.
WASHINGTON - The natural increase in Europe's population is slowing and may start a steep decline within a few decades, researchers say.
Researchers writing in the journal Science said European population growth reached a turning point in the year 2000 when the number of children dropped to a level that statistically assured there will be fewer parents in the next generation than there are in the current generation.
In effect, the authors say, the momentum for population growth in the 15-nation European Union has flipped from positive to negative and the trend could strongly influence population numbers throughout the 21st century.
"If the current fertility rate of around 1.5 births per woman persists until 2020, negative momentum will result in 88 million fewer people in 2100, if one assumes constant mortality and no net migration," the researchers say. The EU population in 2000 was about 375 million.
Brian C. O'Neill, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and a co-author of the study, said the projection is based on the age structure of the current European population which now has more adults than children.
"Age structure affects population size because it determines how many adults there will be in the future," O'Neill said in an interview. "Currently there are fewer children than adults. That can produce a declining population in the future because the number of potential parents will be smaller than the number of parents there are today."
A population decline in Europe is not assured, said O'Neill, but the decline in the number of future parents is a fact that may set in motion a drop in population.
"That is going to push the population toward decline," he said. "Whether it actually ends up in a decline will depend on other factors, particularly migration. ... The European population may not decline if migration is high enough to offset this population momentum."
---
On the net:
Science magazine:
http://www.sciencemag.org
Researchers writing in the journal Science said European population growth reached a turning point in the year 2000 when the number of children dropped to a level that statistically assured there will be fewer parents in the next generation than there are in the current generation.
In effect, the authors say, the momentum for population growth in the 15-nation European Union has flipped from positive to negative and the trend could strongly influence population numbers throughout the 21st century.
"If the current fertility rate of around 1.5 births per woman persists until 2020, negative momentum will result in 88 million fewer people in 2100, if one assumes constant mortality and no net migration," the researchers say. The EU population in 2000 was about 375 million.
Brian C. O'Neill, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and a co-author of the study, said the projection is based on the age structure of the current European population which now has more adults than children.
"Age structure affects population size because it determines how many adults there will be in the future," O'Neill said in an interview. "Currently there are fewer children than adults. That can produce a declining population in the future because the number of potential parents will be smaller than the number of parents there are today."
A population decline in Europe is not assured, said O'Neill, but the decline in the number of future parents is a fact that may set in motion a drop in population.
"That is going to push the population toward decline," he said. "Whether it actually ends up in a decline will depend on other factors, particularly migration. ... The European population may not decline if migration is high enough to offset this population momentum."
---
On the net:
Science magazine:
http://www.sciencemag.org
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